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Category: History

Counteractual historical researches



to KONTSEPTION ISTORIYA

V.A. NEKHAMKIN

COUNTERACTUAL HISTORICAL RESEARCHES

In work the genesis, the current state and prospects of subjunctive models of history are considered. The idea about need of synthesis of a number of the directions is proved: alternative, virtual, experimental history. It is shown that each of them carries out the functions supplementing each other: promotion of alternative hypotheses (alternative history); creation of scenarios (virtual history); check of degree of their validity (experimental history). General functions of KFI as the system uniting the specified directions are described.

The counteractual historical researches (KFI) - the cross-disciplinary direction of scientific research within which the potential past expressed in various alternatives is studied. The term "counteractual" means that these researches work not with the fixed "facts" (as traditional historical science), and with alternative scenarios, without calling into question traditional historical chronology.

An initial prerequisite of formation of KFI - ordinary knowledge. In everyday life the people often argue on what could happen to them in the past if... Exclaim: "If I could live life differently!" Not only "losers", but also individuals who quite took place in a professional and everyday field do it. Exactly thanks to ordinary knowledge these questions became a subject of discussion of scientists.

Historical psychology and sociology of history 1/2011 102-120

Especially intensively reasonings on "What Would Be if.", identification of alternatives of past passed in European (originating from Ancient Greece and Rome) traditions of historical knowledge. On the one hand, representatives of fiction were engaged and engaged in it. Result of their activity - a set of novels, stories, the essays devoted to this subject. A striking example - the novel which appeared in 1836 L.N. Zhof-frua-Shato "Napoleon and gaining the world, 1812-1823: the history of the world monarchy" where "the fantastic world which came after defeat of Russians in 1812, gaining the world, establishment of new world order and, naturally, progress approach" (Nort is created 2002: 10). Boundary situation between science and fiction is occupied by numerous anthologies (To... 1931; Durshmid 2000; Nort 2002; Maxi 2001a; 2001b; Kouli 2002; Tsuras 2004; 2005), the considering various plots of alternative history.

On the other hand, KFI are engaged scientists. In the 4th century BC Aristotle raised a question in a gnoseological key: he introduced the idea of contrast of reasonings on "What Would Be if." to historical science and need of such reasonings beyond its limits - in poetry (Aristotle 1983: 655). Three centuries later, in the 1st century BC, the ancient Roman historian Tit Livy created the first description of alternative war of Rome and Alexander of Macedon's army. Thus, researches of alternatives of the past have old sources.

However even if after D. Nort to consider a reference point of serious scientific knowledge of historical alternatives the 19th century, then and then it contains "more than hundred fifty years" (Nort 2002: 10). The inhabitants, writers, scientists arguing in line with KFI are made related by the general gnoseological question. Its essence is accurately formulated by V.K. Egorov (1990: 6): Whether "The human thought is able to reach the truth if the facts are pushed into the background, and on front cancelled alternatives when all system of reasonings is based upon the assumptions "here if move forward. then""? Answers to it are given different (sometimes negative), but the fact of their search demonstrates that KFI is universal (covering a number of layers of outlook) the direction of knowledge.

KFI are engaged the famous western scientists: D. Nort (2002), P. Tsuras (2004; 2005), K. Maxi 2001a; 2001b;), R. Vogel, S. En-

Herman (Fogel 1964; Fogel, Б^егшап 1971). In 1993 to Americans Vogel and Nort the Nobel Prize "For a new research of economic story with the help of the economic theory and quantitative methods for an explanation of economic and institutional changes" was awarded.

There are interesting works and in Russia (see L.M. Batkin, A.Ya. Gurevich, P.Yu. Uvarov, D.E. Haritonovich's, for example, performances in: History. 2000 and also: Bestuzhev-Lada 1997; Burov-sky 2005; Guts 2000; Gurevich 1996; Kudryashov, Oleynikov 1995; Lotman 1992; 1994; Modestov 2000; Molodyakov 2004; Nazaretyan 2005; Actionut 1994; 2000). The round table which is carried out by Institute of general history of RAS in 1999 "History in a subjunctive mood became an important milestone?" (History. 2000), where the intermediate result of formation of the counteractual researches in the XX century is summed up.

In my opinion, so far concerning KFI there are three approaches. The first - pragmatical. Its essence: these researches perform support function in relation to historical science, allow to take useful information from the past. For example, if it is necessary to reveal a role of the railroads in the history of the USA of the 19th century, then it is possible to assume that they during this period were not. It was made by Vogel in work "The railroads and the American economic growth". Here KFI in itself do not matter. It is one of means (let and extravagant) the historical analysis. As history deals only with the opportunities realized in practice so far as as N.G. Kozin believes (1980: 142), the research of historical alternatives "performs support functions on strengthening of the argument of natural nature of the implemented course of historical events". Paraphrasing Thomas Aquinas, it is possible to tell: "KFI - the servant of traditional history".

The second approach - possibilistskiya. Here KFI are considered from the philosophical concept "an opportunity - reality". Essence: in the past there were situations when several alternative opportunities of development took place. Then one of them is implemented in practice, and the others samounichtozhatsya. Such approach differs from previous in the fact that recognizes the objective nature of existence of historical alternatives. It was widespread in Marxist philosophy of history (the dialectician of need and accident), is relevant today because pre-

it is red fits into the course of synergetrics. However its lack that as M.A. Cheshkov notes, the historical soslagatelnost at such approach "received unambiguous and rather flat interpretation" (History. 2000: 14). Outside the analysis there is a question of the fate of alternative historical opportunities after realization of the main option, the historical alternativeness comes down to the separate periods of the past.

The third approach to which the author adheres, - evolutionary. KFI should be considered proceeding from them. So far they represent set of a number of the directions: "alternative history", "experimental history", "virtual history", "hypothetical history", "cryptohistory", "retroprognostics", "cancelled history", "counteractual modeling", "counteractual history", etc. Such situation is negatively estimated by certain scientists. For example,

A. V. Bocharov (2003: 150) writes: "Despite quite solid history of development, the new direction of the scientific analysis (KFI. -

B. N) still finally it was not created as in domestic science, and abroad. There is not only no verified methodology, but even the conventional name".

In my opinion, a similar variety speaks about need of transition from an analytical stage in development of KFI to synthetic, to association of a number of the directions. For this role alternative, virtual, experimental stories which for the solution of this task need to be improved in the teoretiko-methodological plan are the most suitable.

Within improvement of alternative history it is necessary to allocate two levels: personalistic (studying persons) and event. The historical science and the counteractual researches of the past study similar objects: historic figures and events. Therefore, they generate special teoretiko-methodological approaches to the analysis of past. At each level of alternative history it is expedient to reveal specific methods of a research.

Now such learning tool as mental change of a result of any historical event is actively used (Haritonovich 2003: 56). In my opinion, it insufficiently. It is necessary to reveal the system of learning tools which is used at each level, having illustrated each of them with examples.

At the personalistic level it is possible to allocate the following methods.

1. Extension of life of really existing personality in former social quality. An essence of this way of knowledge - to show what could happen to the person if he acted under certain valid conditions in the terms which are going beyond his real life. Sometimes this way takes the form of a special method - extension of life of one person. Its application is found by expression in the concrete assumptions. So, the historian of the X century Lev Diakon "prolonged" life to the Byzantine emperor Nikifor, and then analyzed that in this case could occur. "If fate with the death of [Nikifor] (killed by the rival in race for power. - Century of N.) did not wrap up destiny romeev back, anything it would be advisable to expand with it at his life borders of the dominion in the east to India, and in the West - to the borders of the manned world" (Diakon 1988: 45).

Other kind of this method - extension of life to group of historical figures. On its basis A.A. Kersnovsky reflects on possible activity of a number of commanders: "Suvorov died 70 years... He could break still Napoleon at Austerlitz! Kutuzov could live up to the entry into Paris and not give the chance to foreign commanders to appropriate the victories gained by the Russian blood... the 33-year-old commander-in-chief of the Danube army Kamensk Jr. after the brilliant campaigns in Finland and Dobrudja dies from... tuberculosis. Its spring campaign of 1811 - to a campaign to Tsargrad - was not fated to come true... Skobelev would be 60 years old by the beginning of the Japanese war. The marshal Oyama would live in Kaluga in that house where to him Othman pasha lodged" (Russian. 1997: 526-527).

2. Space-time movement of the personality. Essence of a method is as follows: the historical figure is mentally "moved" to other space and time. Then represent: what could occur at the same time? For example, after defeat at Waterloo the British sent the captivated Napoleon into exile on St. Elena's island. Nearby there is the African continent. Considering vigorous energy, organizing abilities, talent of Bonaparte of a military leader, quite reasonably it is possible to assume that it: 1) would make escape from the conclusion; 2) founded the new empire. Such forecast formed the basis of the novel of M. Pervukhin "The second life of Napoleon". It should be noted that mental movement of this person has the special purpose. It allows to reveal with -

the continence of alternative activity of Napoleon in other plane, than could be at extension of life. At the same time at the concrete level the opportunities missed by it reveal.

3. Attributing of the "old" identity of any other, irreal actions. On the basis of the actual data provided by traditional historical science, actions of any historic figure are known, their real consequences are established. From here within the counteractual researches for a specification of an alternative use the assumption: what could happen if this personality made other actions or made other decision?

For example, K. Maxi considers the possibilities of invasion of Wehrmacht into Great Britain in connection with others, than in fact, A. Hitler's actions. "Sudden (my italics. - Century N.) the decision on invasion (to England. - Century of N.) Hitler accepted. On May 21, 1940" (Maxi 2001b: 28). Further his confidence in success of operation was transferred to other German military leaders. "Having faced such amazing support (the plan of invasion into England in the summer of 1940. - Century N.) from Goering, Braukhich (the commander of ground forces. - Century N.), Reder (commander of the Navy. - Century of N.) could not resist long" (Maxi 2001b: 39). Hitler's determination leads to the fact that the operation "Sea Lion" is not postponed indefinitely (as occurred in reality), and is carried out, as well as it is planned, in the summer

1940 years. It provides its success.
4. Removal (physical) really existing historic figure - one more way of knowledge giving the chance of further studying alternatives of the past and their specification. Its essence is expressed by a formula: what could happen if this specific personality was removed from historical process?

The ontologic bases of this method are that any person could die earlier, than in fact. This circumstance allows to make the concrete assumptions: for example, "if Bismarck died in 1860 (really it happened in 1898. - Century of N.), world events would develop in other direction" (Mises 2001: 137). It should be noted that allocation of this way of knowledge - a natural result of development of methodology at the personalistic level of a research. It is possible to make also opposite operation: to reduce vital

way of any given personality. It creates new opportunities for disclosure of alternative option of development of historical process.

At the event level it is expedient to allocate other learning tools.

1. Removal of an event. The essence of a method is that the event mentally is removed from historical process and by that conditions of its course change. As a result the alternative develops, new empirical results of its realization are fixed. From here the concrete assumptions become. So, V.O. Klyuchevsky deletes from historical process a Decembrist uprising of 1825, L.I. Borodkin - P. Stolypin's reform. It asks: what would happen, "if it was not carried out?. As would go (historical. - Century N.) process without reform?" (Whether are possible. 2004: 112).
2. Change of the elements (subevents) making an event. It assumes the analysis of structure of an event. Each of them consists of certain components of elements which it is possible to call "subevents". At the same time the design "if" is used with the purpose to change one of subevents. Only then it is possible to disclose other content of historical events. On the basis of this way the scientists make a number of the assumptions.

The classical example is connected with the battle of Waterloo (1815). Marshal of Grusha, executing the order given him by Napoleon, pursued Prussian troops of Blücher and therefore (despite arrangements of many officers of the headquarters) was not in the battlefield. It was one of the most important subevents of the battle of Waterloo which played a crucial role in its outcome. Decisive battle was lost by the French. But it is mentally possible to change a situation. Some researchers (E. Affindell, E. Durshmid) assume that Grusha, having listened to requests of the officers, the order broke and made the opposite decision. Change of this subevent of battle of Waterloo does real other result of battle. The alternative received at the event level develops, concretized, other possible content of an event comes to light.

3. Change of a result (outcome) of a real event. Its essence is that "a certain event in the past which the author considers key undertakes, it is supposed that the outcome of this event was another, than in fact, also other is described further is-

thorium of the past and the present" (Haritonovich 2003: 56). For example, it is possible to assume that: Greeks lost to Persians sea battle at Salamin in 480 BC. (Zh. Condorcet); Decembrists won in 1825 (N. Eidelman, S. Ekshtut); Germany gained a victory in World War II (Tsuras 2005), etc.

4. Extension of existence of an event in time. The period of existence of an event in historical process lasts, and on this basis the received alternative is concretized. For example, slavery in the USA was cancelled in 1863. By means of a design "if" it is possible to present what would happen if slavery continued to exist in the USA until the end of the 19th century. Being guided by a mental hypothesis, Vogel and Engerman established that in 1890 "the price of slaves would exceed existing in 1860. for 60%" (Fogel, Б^егшап 1971: 312). These and other calculations forced some historians to admit the paradoxical fact: "North American slavery was extremely favorable economic system... It was more effective, than the way of production in northern states based on free work" (Ladyuri 1993: 158-159).
5. Transfer of term of realization of an event in time. In traditional history each event is accurately tied to certain time. Attack of Napoleonic army on Russia happened on June 24, 1812; the German Wehrmacht to the USSR - on June 22
1941 years, etc. However within the counteractual researches the scientist can move these events on a timeline concerning a point of their valid realization both up, and down. In the first case the date of implementation of the known event is postponed in later (than in reality) the period. And duration of such "movement" is various: from days, weeks, months to several years. For this purpose make the concrete assumptions. V. Suvorov considers that if Germany did not attack the USSR on June 22, 1941, the USSR itself would attack Germany in two weeks - July 6. On this assumption its counteractual scenario stated in works "Ice breaker", "Day of "M"", etc. is under construction

The valid event within the counteractual researches is moved on a timeline and down, i.e. to its real term. So, W. Keitel believed: if war began with the USSR not in June, and in April or May, 1941 (as assumed the lane -

vonachalno the plan Barbarossa), "we would appear in 30 km from Moscow surrounded from the North, the West, the South, not in November, uvyazy in snow and at a frost up to 40 degrees, and two months earlier, prior to the beginning of this infernal icy cold" (Keitel 2000: 282). According to him, the beginning of war in April-May, 1941 could bring to Germany a victory.

6. Introduction to historical process of a new event. Are entered into a causal number of the implemented events such which were not carried out, but were quite possible. So, Germany, Italy, Japan, their allies - on the one hand, and the anti-German coalition (USA, Great Britain, the USSR) - with another were involved in World War II. Turkey did not join one of the unions. However it is possible to assume that this state (owing to sympathies of a part of its ruling elite for Germany) would begin in 1942 fighting on the party of the Axis (Tsuras 2005: 198-234). Thereby the new possible event is entered into historical process that allows to gain additional knowledge of already known past.

Classification of the means of the analysis used at the personalistic and event levels of alternative history is given in table 1.

Table 1

Levels and ways of the counteractual historical researches in alternative history

Levels Ways of the analysis

Personali-stskiya Extension of life of really existing historic figure

Space-time movement of the personality

Attributing of the real identity of other, irreal actions

Removal (physical) real personality

Events - ny Removal of an event

Change of the elements (subevents) making an event

Change of a result of a real event

Extension of existence of an event in time

Introduction to historical process of a new event

The specified methods can be used in alternative history as separately, and is combined. On their basis the counteractual assumptions of the past are created.

The assumptions created within alternative history are divided on: 1) really possible; 2) irreal (fantastic) which under any conditions could not be implemented. For their distinction we marked out characteristics of each type of the assumptions. So, really possible assumptions lean on minimum changed facts. From here characteristics of this type of the assumptions follow: a) the studied object moves only in strictly certain (not contradicting reality) the temporary period; b) it is impossible to transfer objects, information, mentality of people of the present to the past; c) they have to be logically consistent.

opposite provisions act as

of Osnova on the basis of whom the irreal assumptions are selected. First, existence of absolutely fantastic assumptions (for example, M. Twain moved the hero of the book "The Yankee at court of the King Artur" from the USA of the 19th age to England of the 6th century). Secondly, any elimination of the facts, movement of an object, equipment in space and time which is beyond real opportunities. So, S. Likok argued on what would be if Napoleon said goodbye to the guard in April, 1814, being in the car. Thirdly, the author when forming the assumptions leans on poorly reasoned hypotheses. For example, V. Suvorov, proving inevitability of a victory of the USSR in case of its preventive strike across Germany in the summer of 1941, refers to quantitative superiority of the Soviet military equipment. But the researcher ignores data on quality of the Red Army of that period: insufficient equipment of aircraft and ground forces radio communication, "bulkiness" of tank corps (1000 cars), etc. In other words, Suvorov's assumption is insufficiently proved. At last, fourthly, a support only on own estimates. So, U. Churchill (To. 1931) assumed that in case of a victory at Gettysburg in 1863 the general R. Li ordering army of Confederation of the southern states would cancel slavery. But the similar decision was political, and owing to this fact it could not be accepted the military leader. Churchill who was perfectly knowing it ignored this circumstance because he itself considered institute of slavery harmful in the economic and moral relations. At reconstruction of an alternative of the past it introduced own views in the analysis.

Using criteria of division of the assumptions on really possible and irreal, it is possible to reveal degree of scientific character of the made assumptions at early stages of KFI, abstracting from absolutely fantastic hypotheses.

Thus, within alternative history, alternatives of the past which passes the following stages are formed: 1) emergence on the basis of a design "if"; 2) a specification at the personalistic and event levels; 3) promotion of the assumptions on the basis of the allocated methods; 4) division of alternatives of the past on irreal (fantastic) and really possible.

In my opinion, on the basis of the counteractual hypotheses the scenario (i.e. the description of the potential past) allowing to see concrete manifestations of any hypothesis has to be under construction. I allocated the following structural elements of the initial scenario: a) purpose (initial thesis); b) parameters are the basic bases on which the scenario is under construction; c) the conditions opening specific forms of realization of parameters; d) actually description (picture) of the potential past; e) the conclusion from the scenario confirming (or disproving) an initial thesis. At such look it is present at Tit Libya at the description of hypothetical war of Alexander of Macedon and Romans (Tit Livy 2002: 517-522).

In the 19th century K. Clausewitz (1997: 161-164) added the rule of creation of scenarios here, and I.V. Bestuzhev-Lada suggested to consider them virtual. Allocation of structure of scenarios allows to pass to the next stage of the counteractual researches: to their check. Experimental history has to make it, in my opinion.

The first way of check - search of analogy between the scenario and reality. The counteractual scenario is considered reliable if has an analog in the past. The important argument in favor of this way is that check has to rely on historical reality. From here it is possible to draw a valid conclusion: if the situation described in the scenario ever took earlier place in fact, it is right if it is not present, then is false. For example, "as we know that for generation to Spartacus, during the great revolt of slaves on Sicily risen chose to themselves the capital and the tsar, we can believe that if Spartak won, he would found one more Italic Hellenistic kingdom where for certain there would be slavery, as well as everywhere in that

era" (Veins of 2003: 182-183). Here an inspection is carried out by analogy with reality. On this basis the assumption proving reliability of the scenario becomes.

Further, it is important how M.I. Budyko noted (2001: 97) to separate more probable consequences of not carried out events from "much less probable, though their possible results". Respectively extrapolation of the known past on unknown (including by an analogy method) has to be carried out in a limited time span. For example, Budyko considers that it is impossible, "without choosing the path of ill-founded guesses" to argue, "as the history of Europe throughout the millennia after Alexander of Macedon's death would change" (A. Toynbee's position), but it is possible to prolong mentally life to this statesman for 10 years (In the same place: 100).

The scenarios of alternatives of the past checked by "extrapolation by analogy" have a number of shortcomings. First, they consider mainly external similarity, quantity characteristics of objects. Secondly, they often have the subjective, politized character and act as G.G. Ma-linetsky noted (1997: 101), means of "ideological fight", i.e. extrapolations on historical process of personal representations of certain scientists and publicists. Such "informative" situation should have been overcome, having added this method of verification of scenarios with another.

The second way of check - promotion of the arguments proving reliability of the scenario. The scenario is acceptable if it is created on the basis of theoretical provisions and is confirmed by examples from the valid historical practice. So, Clausewitz adduced the following arguments in protection of the thesis that Napoleon could win against troops of allies a campaign of 1814 if he pursued Prussian army of Blücher.

1. Theoretical. Napoleon would achieve success because "it is more favorable to strike blows in one direction, than to throw the forces from place to place" (Clausewitz 1997: 167). History knows many examples when commanders who concentrated in one place the troops for blow to the opponent, practically always gained victories.
2. Quantitative. Losses in the previous fights led to the fact that on the number of army of Prussians significantly conceded

to the French. Moreover, on the way to Reina Blücher had no opportunity to fill up them with reserves or to receive reinforcements (Clausewitz 1997: 167-168). Prussians would be broken because, as a rule, the troops which are in number giving way to the opponent and left without reserves suffer a defeat.

3. Moral factor. According to Clausewitz, Prussian army - main "spring" of actions of allies. Blücher and his troops made "the center of gravity which is carrying away all the rest in the direction taken them" (In the same place: 167). From here the following provision supported with multiple examples followed: defeat of Prussian army would force to leave France other forces of allies - British, Russians, the Austrians.
4. Psychological factor. Here Clausewitz's argument comes down to the fact that "no other success would be distinguished with such brightness, would not appear to imagination in such enormous outline". The Austrian commander Schwarzenberg is a weak, indecisive commander - would feel a considerable psychological shock. "Defeat which would be suffered by Blücher on the absolutely isolated... the direction from Marne to Reina, would come to Schwarzenberg... in the form of an avalanche of rumors" (In the same place: 168). It inevitably would force the Austrian military leader to make the decision on retreat.

The third way of critical verification of the counteractual scenarios - the proof that during creation of the counteractual scenario any parameter is not considered. For example, already in February, 1814 Clausewitz did not pay attention to the major, in my opinion, factor to stages of promotion of the assumption of a possibility of a victory of Napoleon: full number of the parties which are involved in fighting. So, except French and Prussian, on this military theater there were English, Austrian and Russian armies. The cumulative number of their soldiers exceeded forces of Napoleon and his commanders almost five times: 230 thousand against 47 thousand.

The fourth way of verification of scenarios - construction new, alternative initial, the scenario. For example, it is possible to simulate as events taking into account the parameter which is not considered by Clausewitz would develop if Napoleon made actions which to it a post facto were offered by the German theorist (Nekhamkin 2006b: 114-115).

As a result of consistently applied KFI methodology from group of the separate directions turn in poznava-

telny system. In alternative history hypotheses are made, in virtual - on their basis scenarios are under construction, in experimental - their check is carried out.

Such system performs a number of functions. The first function - pragmatical. It is implemented also in history philosophy. It assumes that within the conducted researches the extraction from the analysis of the past of useful information ("lessons") for the benefit of the present takes place.

In turn this function is implemented by means of komparativistsky and correctional subfunctions. Within the first similar historical situations are compared, as gives the chance to take useful information. For example, in practice the landing operations to the British Isles (which were preparing by Spain in 1588, France in 1804-1805, Germany in 1940) were not realized. Their counteractual analysis establishes the general reasons of failures, the repeating mistakes of military leaders when planning fighting. The correctional subfunction means that information obtained during the counteractual researches allows to change to the best actions of people in the present.

The second function - methodological. It is defined by the fact that the counteractual researches, significantly different from traditional historical knowledge, have own methods. Thanks to their use it is possible to establish earlier unknown reasons of any real historical events or to model influence of events, possible in the past, on the course of historical process. Methodological function is implemented by means of a causal subfunction. Presence of the last allows to prove, for example, that coming to power in Russia of participants of the movement of Decembrists would have an important positive impact on the subsequent story of the country (V.A. Nekhamkin, A.N. Nekhamkin 2006: 805-812).

The following subfunction - predictive. The learning tools developed within the counteractual researches give the chance to reveal the options of historical development which are not carried out in practice and also to describe their contents. Therefore, it is about retrospective forecasting. It allows to reveal, for example, consequences of what could happen: if Napoleon in 1804 by means of steamships landed the French troops in England (S. Hook); if slavery in the USA remained till 1890 (R. Vogel, S. Engerman).

The third function - world outlook. It is defined by the fact that information obtained in the counteractual researches influences views, opinions, judgments of people, leads to their change. This function is implemented in two subfunctions: estimated (axiological) and innovative. The first allows to specify the settled judgments of the past. So, many western historians considered that the railroads played the leading role in economic development of the USA of the 19th century. However in connection with the new data got within the counteractual analysis of Vogel, this judgment was significantly corrected.

Besides, on the basis of a world outlook subfunction also another is implemented - innovative, allowing to obtain new information on historical process. Vogel, having constructed the mathematical model based on the fact of lack of the railroads during this period proved that they had no such impact on development of economy of the USA as it was approved as scientists earlier. Thereby new useful information about the past was obtained.

In general the system of functions of the counteractual researches finds reflection in table 2.

Table 2

Functions of the counteractual researches

Functions 1 2 3

Basic Pragmatical (utilitarian) Methodologists - chesky Mirovozzrenche-Skye

Derivative (subfunctions) The comparativist - Skye; correctional Causal; prognostiche-Skye Estimated; innovative

So, the counteractual historical researches uniting alternative, virtual and experimental stories are an informative system. Its bases: 1) alternativeness; 2) functional specialization; 3) general functions (pragmatical, methodological, world outlook).

It is expedient to generalize the prospects of development of the counteractual researches in the following provisions.

1. It is necessary to continue synthesis of the KFI various directions: "hypothetical history", "cryptohistory", "retroprognostics", "cancelled history", "counteractual modeling", "counteractual history", etc.
2. KFI have to be studied proceeding from their own logic of development, methodology, etc., but is not speculative, i.e. by their interpretation from a position of any philosophical theory (for example, concepts of a ratio of an opportunity and reality), or the cross-disciplinary direction of scientific research (for example, synergetrics).
3. Within KFI the model of "a bifurcation point" developed in synergetrics has essential heuristic potential. However it needs adjustment in a number of the directions. First, avoiding binarity towards polyalternativeness at assessment of internal maintenance of similar points is necessary (A.P. Nazar-tyan [2005] suggested to call such states "polifurka-tion points"). Secondly, has to be "гуманитаризирован" the categorial device of this model from which it is necessary to eliminirovat "chaotic attractors" and to that the similar concepts created in natural sciences and to replace them more adequate. Thirdly, it is necessary to overcome the thesis which is put forward in synergetrics about unpredictability of development in a bifurcation point. In my opinion, it "restrictedly is valid" at knowledge of historical process.
4. It is necessary to continue researches on identification of genesis, stages of development of KFI. There are separate works (Bocharov 2003; Nekhamkin 2006a; 2006b; 2009) in this direction, but so far before creation of a complete picture of evolution of KFI it is far.
5. Now KFI cover mainly three spheres of historical knowledge: economic, military, political history. They should be transferred to other areas of studying the past that demands creation of universal methodology of KFI.
6. Debatable is a question of the status of KFI in the system of scientific knowledge. Already it was clear to Aristotle and Lukian from Samosata that such researches cannot be conducted within historical science. Of course, have a certain heuristic potential of attempt to tie them to history philosophy on which I.V. Bestuzhev-Lada insists (1997: 112-113). In my opinion, KFI needs to recognize as the cross-disciplinary direction of scientific research, like system approach, synergetrics, etc.
7. The manuals devoted to KFI, reflecting the history of their formation and methodology are necessary.

Literature

Aristotle. 1983. Soch.: in 4 t. T. 4. M.: Science.

Bestuzhev-Lada, I.V. 1997. Retroalternativistika in history philosophy. Questions of philosophy 8: 112-123.

Bocharov, A.V. 2003. The idea of alternativeness of historical development in a domestic is?

Matilda Sandra
Other scientific works: