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Formation of analytical institutes of the American prospecting community: conceptual approaches of Sh. Kent



sergy STARKIN

FORMATION of ANALYTICAL INSTITUTES of the AMERICAN PROSPECTING COMMUNITY: CONCEPTUAL APPROACHES of Sh. Kent

In article the analysis of conceptual views of Highway, Kent and their influence on formation and evolution of the prospecting analysis is carried out to the USA,

The analysis of S, Kent’s conceptual views and of their influence on the USA Intelligence community analysis’ formation and evolution are represented in the article,

U.S. intelligence community, American prospecting analysis, prospecting foreign policy examination; USA Intelligence Community, American intelligence analysis, intelligence foreign-policy appraisal.

In the American prospecting literature of Sherman Kent, from 1952 to 1967 the heading Bureau of national estimates of the CIA, quite often call "the father of the prospecting analysis" 1 that means not only the fact that Kent was its founder, but also and the fact that his intellectual "genetics" acts as the powerful base of the modern prospecting mechanism. Kent's heritage proved the viability, and his approach to the analysis of prospecting information is effectively used by intelligence of the United States for a long time.

In this regard in a format of a research of genesis and evolution of the U.S. intelligence community the special relevance is represented by studying conceptual approaches to the organization of analytical work of one of founders of this community which Sh. Kent is.

Studying Sh. Kent's creativity, it should be noted his uncommon origin. On the mother's side he is connected with Roger Sherman — one of five authors of the Declaration nezavisimosti2.

Sh. Kent's biography looks as follows: in 1926 he graduated from Yale University at which he defended the dissertation (1933) and worked as the teacher of history, and then professor (1935) prior to World War II voyny3.

In 1941 Kent was mobilized in Management of coordination of information where was the head of research and the analysis of Africa, then (in 1943) is transferred Managements of strategic services to a position of the head of research of Europe and Africa. In 1946 he is appointed the director of Management of researches and investigations of State department.

Working in Management of strategic services, Kent showed uncommon talent in the annex of the academic methods to production of prospecting documents during the war, including at -

1 Olcott A. Peeling Facts off the Face of the Unknown. Revisiting the Legacy: Sherman Kent, Willmoore Kendall, and George Pettee — Strategic Intelligence in the Digital Age//Center CIA for the study of intelligence, vol. 153, No. 2.
2 Ibid.
3 R. Hilsmen. Strategic investigation and political decisions. — M, 1957, page 128.

STARKIN

Sergey

Valeryevich —

to. watered. N,

associate professor

international

relations

Nizhny Novgorod

research

the university of

N.I. Lobachevsky

starkinserge@mail.ru

inclination of employees to work in team, strict observance of terms and orientation to needs of consumers. In particular, production of a series of researches on ports and the railroads of North Africa for ensuring support of the planned invasion soyuzni-kov1 was one of achievements of this division. For performance of this work Kent as the project manager forced many scientists to work days and nights. The military authorities could not believe in the fact of existence of similar volume of useful information, as well as in the speed of writing of this review. The North African reports strengthened reputation of department of researches and the analysis among military and also Kent's reputation in the formed world of the prospecting analysis.

After war of a pit of Kent was interrupted as a result of the decision on dissolution of management in October, 1945 the State department did not show special interest in employment of analytical workers from the academic environment, many of which were born abroad or kept too independently. Besides, employees of Foreign Ministry considered themselves chief specialists over other countries and did not need foreign experts. As a result the department was disbanded, and its analysts were sent to various regional services.

After war Kent began work in prestigious civil institution — National military college. These years he wrote the book "Strategic Investigation for the American World Politics" 2 which, according to him, had to help with training of the first-class prospecting analysts for ensuring post-war safety. In 1947 he also resumed teaching in Yale.

drew with

"Strategic investigation" attention of the director of the CIA general Walter Smith who in 1950 "ordered" to Kent to return to prospecting work. Not the last role in it was played by the Korean war: Smith was surprised and angry

1 Davis J. Sherman Kent and the Profession of Intelligence Analysis//The Sherman Kent Center for Intelligence Analysis. Occasional Papers, vol. 1, No. 5.
2 Kent S. Strategic Intelligence for American World Policy. — Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press,
1949.

the fact that investigation did not give preliminary prospecting estimate across Korea. In fact in the USA at that time, despite lessons of Pearl Harbour, there was no institution which would be engaged in the analysis and coordination of estimates of all intelligence organizations of the USA.

At the initiative of the general Smith the Bureau of national estimates into which the famous scientists, intelligence officers, military and diplomats entered and to which function of observation of process of assessment of the arriving information was delegated was founded. Kent was invited at first as the assistant administrator of Bureau — the Harvard historian William Langer (the head of department of researches and the analysis during the war) and subsequently took its place. Kent worked in Bureau seventeen years — since 1950 until retirement in 1967

According to D. Davies, Kent always set high standards of the analysis and tried to surround himself with the talented analysts who had satisfaction from the profession and ready to work very hard for the sake of common cause. In turn, he respected their work and defended their judgments. Kent always tried to win over people, to smooth contradictions in the relations and very seldom criticized subordinates. Its charismatic figure and eccentricity, along with analytical talents, played a big role in increase in influence of Bureau otsenok3.

Kent had mixed feelings to deputy directors of investigation. On the one hand, flattered him that the Bureau left three deputy directors: R. Cline, R. Smith and E. Proctor. On the other hand, he considered that the first two tried to undermine prestige of Bureau of national estimates actively. It always resisted attempts of deputy directors of investigation to weaken independence of Bureau, especially its personal right of the direct report to the director of investigation.

According to most of experts, Kent is the prominent figure which had a great influence on development of the prospecting analysis. When to professor E. Mei from Harvard University, to the leading expert on the history of investigation, asked a question why he quotes

3 Davis J. Op. cit.
201 0& 12
175

"Strategic investigation" — the book which was written by Kent 40 years ago he answered: "Yes, but for these forty years nobody stated things as cleverly as Kent" 1.

Kent considered that language of analytical documents has to be the most exact, without giving the chance of double treatment. In particular, he believed that all American officials understood value of the probabilities which are often quoted in sport and that by means of the same expressions it was possible to transfer calculations of uncertainty in the prospecting analysis.

"Strategic investigation", articles and Kent's letters on need of attraction of the best minds in investigation influenced formation of analytical mentality of the first directors of investigation and their assistants. Recognizing merits of experienced diplomats, businessmen and military, the U.S. intelligence in not smaller degree needed scientists. In the memorandum which Kent sent to the director of investigation H. Vandenberg in 1946 he called about twenty professors who, according to him, should be involved in analytical work. He also called for recruitment of talented university graduates. Kent's persistence did not remain unaddressed. To the middle of the 1950th the considerable number of scientists, both young, and mature served in Management of investigation.

In 1955 Kent successfully lobbied creation professional razvedyva-

1 Ibid.

the telny magazine "Studies in Intelligence" also became the first chairman of editorial board. Articles of skilled practicians and critical remarks on them from colleagues helped to put standards and to define "the best practicians" in different spheres: from estimated language to the relations with politicians.

Kent supported creation of Institute of the advanced studying investigation for a research of prospecting calls and transfer of experience of the senior generation to young. The idea was realized after its retirement when in 1975 the Center of a research of investigation (Center for the Study of Intelligence — CSI) was based. Kent wrote several theoretical articles on history and practice of the prospecting analysis, being at the same time independent employee of the Center.

Kent always preferred to avoid publicity and did not give an interview. Though after the publication of "Strategic investigation" he made statements for importance of the professional prospecting analysis, he never commented on the doctrine and practice. It published several secret statey2 and left to archives of Yale University several official references and materials of the lectures according to which modern researchers can make idea of its analytical discourse.

2 Sherman Kent and the Board of National Estimates: Collected Essays, 1994//http://www.cia. gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/html
Tyler Griffin
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